Reaching the One-Third Point of the MLB Season
Roughly one-third of the Major League Baseball season is in the books and there are some very surprising developments. The Minnesota Twins had a terrific month of May and have moved way up in the AL Central. The Oakland A’s, on the other hand, had a truly awful month and have sunk deep into the basement of the AL West. This is the one-third of the season update.
In the “actual standings” section, I’ve included each team’s run differential and their projected record based on their runs scored and runs allowed using the Pythagorean wining percentage calculator. The formula for the Pythagorean inning percentage calculation is below. This is a better method of predicting how good a team will be moving forward than their actual record predicts. All standings are as of June 2nd.
RS^1.83/(RS^1.83 + RA^1.83)
RS=Runs Scored
RA=Runs Allowed
AL East
My pre-season prediction:
Boston Red Sox 92-70 .568 ---
Toronto Blue Jays 84-78 .519 8.0
Baltimore Orioles 82-80 .506 10.0
New York Yankees 78-84 .481 14.0
Tampa Bay Rays 76-86 .469 16.0
Actual standings:
New York Yankees 28-25 .528 --- (+17 run diff.) 28-25
Tampa Bay Rays 27-26 .509 1.0 (+14 run diff.) 28-25
Baltimore Orioles 23-28 .451 4.0 (-6 run diff.) 26-27
Toronto Blue Jays 24-30 .444 4.5 (+27 run diff.) 30-24
Boston Red Sox 23-29 .442 4.5 (-47 run diff.) 21-31
Since the One-Month Update: Since my one-month update, the Tampa Bay Rays are 14-14. Every other team in the AL East has a losing record, with the Orioles 11-17 mark being the worst over that stretch. For many years, the AL West was one of the weakest divisions in baseball and the AL East was one of the toughest. That is not the case in 2015. The good news for all five of these teams is that just 4 ½ games separate the leader from the last place team, so it’s still anyone’s division to win. Based on run differential, the Blue Jays have been the best team in the division and “should” have a record of 30-24. They’ve underperformed by six games. The Red Sox have a negative 47 run differential and are two games on the lucky side.
Roughly one-third of the Major League Baseball season is in the books and there are some very surprising developments. The Minnesota Twins had a terrific month of May and have moved way up in the AL Central. The Oakland A’s, on the other hand, had a truly awful month and have sunk deep into the basement of the AL West. This is the one-third of the season update.
In the “actual standings” section, I’ve included each team’s run differential and their projected record based on their runs scored and runs allowed using the Pythagorean wining percentage calculator. The formula for the Pythagorean inning percentage calculation is below. This is a better method of predicting how good a team will be moving forward than their actual record predicts. All standings are as of June 2nd.
RS^1.83/(RS^1.83 + RA^1.83)
RS=Runs Scored
RA=Runs Allowed
AL East
My pre-season prediction:
Boston Red Sox 92-70 .568 ---
Toronto Blue Jays 84-78 .519 8.0
Baltimore Orioles 82-80 .506 10.0
New York Yankees 78-84 .481 14.0
Tampa Bay Rays 76-86 .469 16.0
Actual standings:
New York Yankees 28-25 .528 --- (+17 run diff.) 28-25
Tampa Bay Rays 27-26 .509 1.0 (+14 run diff.) 28-25
Baltimore Orioles 23-28 .451 4.0 (-6 run diff.) 26-27
Toronto Blue Jays 24-30 .444 4.5 (+27 run diff.) 30-24
Boston Red Sox 23-29 .442 4.5 (-47 run diff.) 21-31
Since the One-Month Update: Since my one-month update, the Tampa Bay Rays are 14-14. Every other team in the AL East has a losing record, with the Orioles 11-17 mark being the worst over that stretch. For many years, the AL West was one of the weakest divisions in baseball and the AL East was one of the toughest. That is not the case in 2015. The good news for all five of these teams is that just 4 ½ games separate the leader from the last place team, so it’s still anyone’s division to win. Based on run differential, the Blue Jays have been the best team in the division and “should” have a record of 30-24. They’ve underperformed by six games. The Red Sox have a negative 47 run differential and are two games on the lucky side.
AL Central
My pre-season prediction:
Cleveland Indians 87-75 .537 ---
Detroit Tigers 84-78 .519 3.0
Chicago White Sox 81-81 .500 6.0
Kansas City Royals 80-82 .494 7.0
Minnesota Twins 68-94 .420 19.0
Actual standings:
Minnesota Twins 30-20 .600 -- (+20 run diff.) 27-23
Kansas City Royals 29-20 .592 0.5 (+48 run diff.) 30-19
Detroit Tigers 28-25 .528 3.5 (-3 run diff.) 26-27
Cleveland Indians 23-26 .490 5.5 (+5 run diff.) 26-25
Chicago White Sox 23-27 .460 7.0 (-55 run diff.) 19-31
Since the One Month Update: The Minnesota Twins are the biggest surprise in baseball at the moment, although they have won three more games than you’d expect based on their run differential so there’s been a bit of luck involved. Still, I had them winning just 68 games this year and they are nearly halfway to that mark in just under one-third of the season. Since Early May, the Twins have gone 17-9.
Despite being in second place right now, the Royals are the best team in this division. The Tigers have really struggled over the last month, going 9-15. They have missed the bat of the injured Victor Martinez and starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez is doing a very good Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde impersonation when he’s on the mound. He’ll look great for three innings then get bombed the next inning. The Indians have started to get things back on track after a 9-15 start. They’ve won 14 of 25 over the last month. The White Sox have also righted the ship after a slow start, going 15-13 since my last standings update.
AL West
My pre-season prediction:
Los Angeles Angels 88-74 .543 ---
Oakland Athletics 86-76 .531 2.0
Seattle Mariners 86-76 .531 2.0
Houston Astros 74-88 .457 14.0
Texas Rangers 73-89 .451 15.0
Actual standings:
Houston Astros 33-20 .623 --- (+27 run diff.) 30-23
Los Angeles Angels 28-25 .528 5.0 (+7 run diff.) 27-26
Texas Rangers 27-25 .519 5.5 (+12 run diff.) 27-25
Seattle Mariners 24-28 .462 8.5 (-25 run diff.) 23-29
Oakland Athletics 21-33 .389 12.5 (+3 run diff.) 27-27
Since the One Month Update: Based on run differential, this division should be much tighter. If every team had played to their runs scored and runs allowed, the top four teams would be within three games of each other, with the Mariners at seven games back of the pack. Instead, the Oakland A’s are getting dusted and left for dead by the surging Astros. The A’s are 10-18 since my last update and look to be sellers rather than buyers when July comes around. The Astros, meanwhile, have slowed down from their 18-7 start, going 15-13 over the last month. The Angels (17-11 since early May) and Rangers (19-9 since early May) have picked up ground, while the Mariners (10-15 since early May) have not had a good time of it lately.
NL East
My pre-season prediction:
Washington Nationals 97-65 .599 ---
Miami Marlins 84-78 .519 13.0
New York Mets 81-81 .500 16.0
Atlanta Braves 72-90 .444 25.0
Philadelphia Phillies 61-101 .377 36.0
Actual standings:
Washington Nationals 29-23 .558 --- (+14 run diff.) 27-25
New York Mets 29-24 .547 0.5 (+8 run diff.) 27-26
Atlanta Braves 26-26 .500 3.0 (-7 run diff.) 25-27
Miami Marlins 21-32 .396 8.5 (-22 run diff.) 24-29
Philadelphia Phillies 20-33 .377 9.5 (-72 run diff.) 18-35
Since the One Month Update: The Nationals were four games behind the Mets at the time of my last update but have moved to the top of the division by going 17-9 since then. Still, they just lost Stephen Strasburg to the DL and he joins Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon. They haven’t been at full strength yet this year. The Mets and Braves have both straddled the .500 line over the last month and still remain very much in the race. The Marlins had such a bad month, they were even worse than the pitiful Phillies. Since my last update, the Marlins have gone 9-19 and baffled baseball when they fired their manager and moved their GM to the dugout despite his utter lack of experience as a manager or coach at any level other than high school. It’s mind-boggling what happens in Miami with the Marlins. The Phillies continue to stink and will continue to stink right up until the last out of the regular season.
NL Central
My pre-season prediction:
Pittsburgh Pirates 90-72 .556 ---
St. Louis Cardinals 89-73 .549 1.0
Chicago Cubs 83-79 .512 7.0
Milwaukee Brewers 80-82 .494 10.0
Cincinnati Reds 77-85 .475 13.0
Actual standings:
St. Louis Cardinals 34-18 .654 --- (+60 run diff.) 34-18
Chicago Cubs 27-23 .540 6.0 (-1 run diff.) 25-25
Pittsburgh Pirates 28-24 .538 6.0 (+38 run diff.) 30-22
Cincinnati Reds 22-28 .440 11.0 (-26 run diff.) 22-28
Milwaukee Brewers 18-35 .340 16.5 (-65 run diff.) 20-33
Since the One Month Update: The Cardinals have the biggest lead of any division frontrunner and the best run differential of any team in baseball. They started the year going 18-6 and have gone 16-12 since then. The Cubs have been one game over .500 over the last month, while the Pirates have gone 16-11 and gained momentum as their hitting and pitching has picked up since a slow start. The Reds have struggled and may be looking to trade away a couple of good pitcher (Cueto and Chapman) when the July 31 trade deadline comes around. The Brewers are battling with the Phillies for the worst run differential in baseball.
NL West
My pre-season prediction:
Los Angeles Dodgers 93-69 .574 ---
San Diego Padres 84-78 .519 9.0
San Francisco Giants 79-83 .488 14.0
Colorado Rockies 75-87 .463 18.0
Arizona Diamondbacks 66-96 .407 27.0
Actual standings:
Los Angeles Dodgers 31-21 .596 --- (+57 run diff.) 32-20
San Francisco Giants 30-24 .556 2.0 (+8 run diff.) 28-26
San Diego Padres 26-28 .481 6.0 (-10 run diff.) 26-28
Arizona Diamondbacks 24-27 .471 6.5 (+7 run diff.) 26-25
Rockies 23-28 .451 7.5 (-33 run diff.) 22-29
Since the One Month Update: A mark of 18-11 over the last month has enabled the Giants to close the gap a bit on the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are still clearly the team to beat in this division. The Padres are a mediocre 12-16 since my last update and have fallen below .500. The Diamondbacks went 14-13 over that stretch and are still hanging in there with a record a bit below .500 for the year. The Rockies are just a game back of Arizona but have a run differential that is 40 runs worse, so their future is not bright.
My pre-season prediction:
Cleveland Indians 87-75 .537 ---
Detroit Tigers 84-78 .519 3.0
Chicago White Sox 81-81 .500 6.0
Kansas City Royals 80-82 .494 7.0
Minnesota Twins 68-94 .420 19.0
Actual standings:
Minnesota Twins 30-20 .600 -- (+20 run diff.) 27-23
Kansas City Royals 29-20 .592 0.5 (+48 run diff.) 30-19
Detroit Tigers 28-25 .528 3.5 (-3 run diff.) 26-27
Cleveland Indians 23-26 .490 5.5 (+5 run diff.) 26-25
Chicago White Sox 23-27 .460 7.0 (-55 run diff.) 19-31
Since the One Month Update: The Minnesota Twins are the biggest surprise in baseball at the moment, although they have won three more games than you’d expect based on their run differential so there’s been a bit of luck involved. Still, I had them winning just 68 games this year and they are nearly halfway to that mark in just under one-third of the season. Since Early May, the Twins have gone 17-9.
Despite being in second place right now, the Royals are the best team in this division. The Tigers have really struggled over the last month, going 9-15. They have missed the bat of the injured Victor Martinez and starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez is doing a very good Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde impersonation when he’s on the mound. He’ll look great for three innings then get bombed the next inning. The Indians have started to get things back on track after a 9-15 start. They’ve won 14 of 25 over the last month. The White Sox have also righted the ship after a slow start, going 15-13 since my last standings update.
AL West
My pre-season prediction:
Los Angeles Angels 88-74 .543 ---
Oakland Athletics 86-76 .531 2.0
Seattle Mariners 86-76 .531 2.0
Houston Astros 74-88 .457 14.0
Texas Rangers 73-89 .451 15.0
Actual standings:
Houston Astros 33-20 .623 --- (+27 run diff.) 30-23
Los Angeles Angels 28-25 .528 5.0 (+7 run diff.) 27-26
Texas Rangers 27-25 .519 5.5 (+12 run diff.) 27-25
Seattle Mariners 24-28 .462 8.5 (-25 run diff.) 23-29
Oakland Athletics 21-33 .389 12.5 (+3 run diff.) 27-27
Since the One Month Update: Based on run differential, this division should be much tighter. If every team had played to their runs scored and runs allowed, the top four teams would be within three games of each other, with the Mariners at seven games back of the pack. Instead, the Oakland A’s are getting dusted and left for dead by the surging Astros. The A’s are 10-18 since my last update and look to be sellers rather than buyers when July comes around. The Astros, meanwhile, have slowed down from their 18-7 start, going 15-13 over the last month. The Angels (17-11 since early May) and Rangers (19-9 since early May) have picked up ground, while the Mariners (10-15 since early May) have not had a good time of it lately.
NL East
My pre-season prediction:
Washington Nationals 97-65 .599 ---
Miami Marlins 84-78 .519 13.0
New York Mets 81-81 .500 16.0
Atlanta Braves 72-90 .444 25.0
Philadelphia Phillies 61-101 .377 36.0
Actual standings:
Washington Nationals 29-23 .558 --- (+14 run diff.) 27-25
New York Mets 29-24 .547 0.5 (+8 run diff.) 27-26
Atlanta Braves 26-26 .500 3.0 (-7 run diff.) 25-27
Miami Marlins 21-32 .396 8.5 (-22 run diff.) 24-29
Philadelphia Phillies 20-33 .377 9.5 (-72 run diff.) 18-35
Since the One Month Update: The Nationals were four games behind the Mets at the time of my last update but have moved to the top of the division by going 17-9 since then. Still, they just lost Stephen Strasburg to the DL and he joins Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon. They haven’t been at full strength yet this year. The Mets and Braves have both straddled the .500 line over the last month and still remain very much in the race. The Marlins had such a bad month, they were even worse than the pitiful Phillies. Since my last update, the Marlins have gone 9-19 and baffled baseball when they fired their manager and moved their GM to the dugout despite his utter lack of experience as a manager or coach at any level other than high school. It’s mind-boggling what happens in Miami with the Marlins. The Phillies continue to stink and will continue to stink right up until the last out of the regular season.
NL Central
My pre-season prediction:
Pittsburgh Pirates 90-72 .556 ---
St. Louis Cardinals 89-73 .549 1.0
Chicago Cubs 83-79 .512 7.0
Milwaukee Brewers 80-82 .494 10.0
Cincinnati Reds 77-85 .475 13.0
Actual standings:
St. Louis Cardinals 34-18 .654 --- (+60 run diff.) 34-18
Chicago Cubs 27-23 .540 6.0 (-1 run diff.) 25-25
Pittsburgh Pirates 28-24 .538 6.0 (+38 run diff.) 30-22
Cincinnati Reds 22-28 .440 11.0 (-26 run diff.) 22-28
Milwaukee Brewers 18-35 .340 16.5 (-65 run diff.) 20-33
Since the One Month Update: The Cardinals have the biggest lead of any division frontrunner and the best run differential of any team in baseball. They started the year going 18-6 and have gone 16-12 since then. The Cubs have been one game over .500 over the last month, while the Pirates have gone 16-11 and gained momentum as their hitting and pitching has picked up since a slow start. The Reds have struggled and may be looking to trade away a couple of good pitcher (Cueto and Chapman) when the July 31 trade deadline comes around. The Brewers are battling with the Phillies for the worst run differential in baseball.
NL West
My pre-season prediction:
Los Angeles Dodgers 93-69 .574 ---
San Diego Padres 84-78 .519 9.0
San Francisco Giants 79-83 .488 14.0
Colorado Rockies 75-87 .463 18.0
Arizona Diamondbacks 66-96 .407 27.0
Actual standings:
Los Angeles Dodgers 31-21 .596 --- (+57 run diff.) 32-20
San Francisco Giants 30-24 .556 2.0 (+8 run diff.) 28-26
San Diego Padres 26-28 .481 6.0 (-10 run diff.) 26-28
Arizona Diamondbacks 24-27 .471 6.5 (+7 run diff.) 26-25
Rockies 23-28 .451 7.5 (-33 run diff.) 22-29
Since the One Month Update: A mark of 18-11 over the last month has enabled the Giants to close the gap a bit on the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are still clearly the team to beat in this division. The Padres are a mediocre 12-16 since my last update and have fallen below .500. The Diamondbacks went 14-13 over that stretch and are still hanging in there with a record a bit below .500 for the year. The Rockies are just a game back of Arizona but have a run differential that is 40 runs worse, so their future is not bright.
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